The Mormon Swing Vote

23 July 2008 @ 3:34 pm | 3 comments

The Boston Globe has a nifty timewaster, an electoral college map with adjustable demographics based on race, gender, and religious voting patterns.

Below is a smaller version, only considering the LDS vote. Unlike other faiths, there was only 2006 election data for LDS voters (the sample map below says 2004, but the home site says its 2006) . I suppose its a good sign that while only 2% of the electorate is LDS, its vote is now starting to be measured.

Fiddling with the LDS vote below, you can see that if the LDS vote went 100% GOP (instead of the 80% it appears to be), then it would help Sen. McCain claim New Mexico. On the flip side, if the LDS vote went 100% Democrat, it would gain Utah, Nevada, and Oregon for Sen. Obama.

The Mormon vote is not a powerful voting bloc but it is interesting to see how it can influence the election in specific states.

You can go to the site’s home page to also see how race and gender demographics figured in the elections and adjust them to forecast how 2008 may play out.

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  1. Chris H.’s avatar

    Chris H. on 24 July 2008 at 12:52 pm

    That map has McCain taking Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin. These are all pretty solid Obama states. They are also not huge LDS states (though maybe the argument could be made about Oregon).

    I also feel that Colorado and New Mexico will also be safely in the Obama column.

    I win. YES!

    I really like the following maps at RealClearPolitics:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

  2. David H. Sundwall’s avatar

    David H. Sundwall on 24 July 2008 at 2:43 pm

    Yeah, I don’t know where they’re getting their starting point data from. It’s not the previous electoral results.

    I did find it interesting that given the extremes of LDS voting (100% GOP or Democrat), there’s the potential to swing Oregon and Nevada besides Utah.

    And as interesting, is that even if 100% LDS went Democrat, Idaho stays red.

    You have to love that! :-)

    Colorado is supposed to still be surprisingly close as of polls today. (Not like that means anything. It is going blue.)

  3. David B’s avatar

    David B on 24 July 2008 at 3:31 pm

    You can set the starting point from either the 2004 or the 2006 results (which, of course, give radically different starting points, and the Mormon vote appears to have only 2006 data, as Dave mentioned).

    On a not-about-Mormons note, i noticed that, if you start with 2006 patterns, it takes only *very* small increases in turnout and Democratic-leaningness among blacks and Hispanics to flip Texas blue. All i got to say ’bout that is that if Texas goes Democratic, the Republican party is in for a very long, very cold night.