Comments on: The Mormon Swing Vote http://asoftanswer.com/2008/07/23/the-mormon-swing-vote/ an unseemly mix of politics and Mormonism Thu, 11 Mar 2010 22:25:07 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: David B http://asoftanswer.com/2008/07/23/the-mormon-swing-vote/comment-page-1/#comment-4569 David B Thu, 24 Jul 2008 19:31:44 +0000 http://www.asoftanswer.com/?p=1298#comment-4569 You can set the starting point from either the 2004 or the 2006 results (which, of course, give radically different starting points, and the Mormon vote appears to have only 2006 data, as Dave mentioned). On a not-about-Mormons note, i noticed that, if you start with 2006 patterns, it takes only *very* small increases in turnout and Democratic-leaningness among blacks and Hispanics to flip Texas blue. All i got to say 'bout that is that if Texas goes Democratic, the Republican party is in for a very long, very cold night. You can set the starting point from either the 2004 or the 2006 results (which, of course, give radically different starting points, and the Mormon vote appears to have only 2006 data, as Dave mentioned).

On a not-about-Mormons note, i noticed that, if you start with 2006 patterns, it takes only *very* small increases in turnout and Democratic-leaningness among blacks and Hispanics to flip Texas blue. All i got to say ’bout that is that if Texas goes Democratic, the Republican party is in for a very long, very cold night.

]]> By: David H. Sundwall http://asoftanswer.com/2008/07/23/the-mormon-swing-vote/comment-page-1/#comment-4568 David H. Sundwall Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:43:02 +0000 http://www.asoftanswer.com/?p=1298#comment-4568 Yeah, I don't know where they're getting their starting point data from. It's not the previous electoral results. I did find it interesting that given the extremes of LDS voting (100% GOP or Democrat), there's the potential to swing Oregon and Nevada besides Utah. And as interesting, is that even if 100% LDS went Democrat, Idaho stays red. You have to love that! :-) Colorado is supposed to still be surprisingly close as of polls today. (Not like that means anything. It is going blue.) Yeah, I don’t know where they’re getting their starting point data from. It’s not the previous electoral results.

I did find it interesting that given the extremes of LDS voting (100% GOP or Democrat), there’s the potential to swing Oregon and Nevada besides Utah.

And as interesting, is that even if 100% LDS went Democrat, Idaho stays red.

You have to love that! :-)

Colorado is supposed to still be surprisingly close as of polls today. (Not like that means anything. It is going blue.)

]]> By: Chris H. http://asoftanswer.com/2008/07/23/the-mormon-swing-vote/comment-page-1/#comment-4563 Chris H. Thu, 24 Jul 2008 16:52:51 +0000 http://www.asoftanswer.com/?p=1298#comment-4563 That map has McCain taking Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin. These are all pretty solid Obama states. They are also not huge LDS states (though maybe the argument could be made about Oregon). I also feel that Colorado and New Mexico will also be safely in the Obama column. I win. YES! I really like the following maps at RealClearPolitics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10 That map has McCain taking Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin. These are all pretty solid Obama states. They are also not huge LDS states (though maybe the argument could be made about Oregon).

I also feel that Colorado and New Mexico will also be safely in the Obama column.

I win. YES!

I really like the following maps at RealClearPolitics:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

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