Behold the Mormon Belt

3 February 2009 @ 11:42 am | 6 comments

Not as catchy as the “Jell-O Belt” or as significant as the “Mormon Index” but still interesting. And depressing if you lean Republican.

Obviously, last year was a big year for Democrats but a Gallup survey shows that 35 states leaned Democrat by five points or more and only five states leaned or were solidly Republican. Utah was considered the most solidly Republican with a Democrat-Republican gap of 23%.

Mormon Belt of dwindling GOP support

The small cluster of holdout states has been dubbed the “Mormon Belt.” Looking to 2012, if Sarah Palin wants to woo her base, maybe she should convert (and Mike Huckabee should at least take the discussions).

There were a lot of reasons that contributed to the last year’s Republican wipe-out. Many of those I think (or is it just hope?) will be more temporary than long-standing. Subsequent run-off elections suggest that the Obamenon may be singular event and not necessarily a party-wide Democratic trend.

Either way, Utah is not (yet) joining Pres. Obama’s “moment” and the GOP have a lot of work to do. But how fair is it to attribute these GOP holdouts due to their Mormon population? I’m not sure.

(Possibly) Related posts:

  1. Religious Intensity and Party Identification
  2. Sen. Bennett runs for FAIR president or something

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  1. Dan’s avatar

    Dan on 3 February 2009 at 5:05 pm

    Maybe Mormons should stop leaning Republican…just a thought.

  2. Coffinberry’s avatar

    Coffinberry on 3 February 2009 at 6:05 pm

    ha ha ha… the thought of Nebraska being part of a Jello belt Mormondom… It will take a while to get over that joke.

  3. David B’s avatar

    David B on 4 February 2009 at 5:12 pm

    Texas competitive? Florida leans Democratic? (Yeah, it went for Obama, but McCain has some baggage in this state.) Even more bizarre, Oklahoma leans Democratic? Alabama and Mississippi are competitive? Well, if the Democrats manage not to overreach as much as the Republicans did the past few years, there might well be a decided Democratic lean nationally–but some of these claims are a bit premature at best, i think.

  4. Joe’s avatar

    Joe on 5 February 2009 at 12:50 pm

    I grew up in Idaho and my ward was pretty evenly split Dems and Rep. I think it is more interesting to try to understand why we are not able to maintain a more open political position. Why did we change? Or does the results you show reflect the inability of Mormons in general to accept change. George Bush allowing Dick the dictator Cheney to run wild broke the trust of the Reagan Republicans. Everybody saw this except Utah and Idaho. The failures were incremental but with the luxury of looking back we have gone a long way down a road away from freedoms and everything the Reagan years made us believe in.

    In my ward today anything but far right wing republican talking points are met with disdain and rarely but does happen open ridicule. Republican talking points are often shared as gospel doctrine. Our leaders in SLC have made it very clear where their sentiment lays.

    I would like to be a fly on the wall of any missionary teaching Huckabee.

  5. Steve’s avatar

    Steve on 5 February 2009 at 1:41 pm

    Sarah Palin left a church and joined another in the past for political reasons. She could do it again, although the population in the Mormon belt alone won’t be enough for anyone to win anything on a national level.

  6. David H. Sundwall’s avatar

    David H. Sundwall on 5 February 2009 at 3:30 pm

    David B –

    I think you are right that the map is probably overstating Democratic leanings in some surprising states. I also believe the map will change as reality tamps down some of the unreasonable enthusiasm for Pres. Obama.

    Joe –

    I don’t know when you grew up but I suspect that western Mormons are lot like the south voters which broke from the Democrats in the ’60’s and ’70’s after a lot of cultural turmoil.

    Steve –

    I don’t suspect Palin would be joining the Church anytime soon and doubt anyone else would either. Pandering to a small base is one thing but in reality she or any other Republican will need to reach out to anyone but Mormons.

    Given the current climate towards Mormons in many areas, perhaps becoming anti-Mormon is the way to go. (And I don’t think Palin is anti-Mormon despite some suggestions otherwise).