identity politics

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Obama Dreaming

15 February 2008 @ 4:06 pm | 10 comments

Are typically “true [red], through and through” Mormons going to go blue because their man Mitt was shunned by the GOP?

That’s the wishful thinking that has traveled parts of the Bloggernacle since Mitt Romney ended his campaign last week. And as Sen. Obama has been gaining momentum as the candidate of unity and change, it appears that his personal charm is winning over a lot of unconventional supporters (heck, this former Romney campaigner and Reaganite is now making a case that Catholics should go for Obama)

The Mormon argument for Obama seems to be that since the Republican primaries “rejected” a Mormon candidate, Mormon GOP voters should vent their anger and seek revenge by supporting the Democratic candidate of hope and optimism. 

This Beehive Standard article suggests that if Obama only changed ever so slightly to the right he would be attractive to mainstream conservative Mormons and Utah – the state that gave President Bush the greatest margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 – would swing Democrat in 2008.

That will be hard for the Senator who has the most liberal voting record of 2007. As Jettboy explains very well, traditionally Republican Mormons may like Obama personally but will find his policies unpalatable.

Sen. McCain definitely lacks Obama’s charisma and appeal. He hasn’t reached out to Mormons as Obama has. But Republican Mormons are more savvy than to vote Democrat just because they feel the Republican party is dominated by anti-Mormons (which isn’t true).  Wouldn’t that be the ugliest form of identity politics?

Unless McCain picks up Huckabee as his VP pick, Utah won’t go blue in November.  If McCain does, then let’s talk.

Karl Rove on Mormon Voters

24 January 2008 @ 9:49 am | 10 comments

Hugh Hewitt interviewed Karl Rove yesterday on the campaign and asked him specifically about Mormon voters and GOP party dynamics .

HH: You’re a student of American political history. Religion has played more of a role in the Republican primary than at anytime since 1960, or even 1928. Do you think, if Romney’s not the nominee, that the LDS, which is a significant portion in some states of the Republican values base, or on the other hand, Evangelicals who are literalists, are easily brought back in if their guy isn’t on the ticket?

KR: Oh, I think so. I do think so. And I think, look, again, it’s, they’re not drawn into politics simply because of the presence of Mitt Romney as LDS, though they applaud that. They’re brought in by the fact that he’s a person of deep personal faith, who has espoused socially conservative values, and fiscally conservative values, and has a life record that they find attractive. I don’t think it is the only thing, or even the principal thing that drives a lot of LDS to vote Republican. And so you need to be worried about does it look like if, does it look like 1928? I think it did hurt the Republican Party long term, that it looked like we were anti-Catholic. And so we’ve got to make certain that we don’t look anti-anything. We need to be for something. And to the degree that that happens, depending on what, you know, if a Huckabee doesn’t win, or Romney doesn’t win, or if their supporters who are going to feel…if they feel welcomed, are going to remain and be enthusiastic in the fall, particularly given a choice between our likely nominee, whoever that is, and the Democrats’ likely nominee, whom I suspect will be Hillary Clinton.

Would traditionally Republican Mormons leave the GOP if Romney lost the nomination? That would be a serious case of bad identity politics. If Huckabee won the nomination, I could see some Mormons sitting out this election but not if it was someone else.